Tuesday, April 26, 2011

January 2009

Back in late January of 2009 I was watching the BKX with great attention as each low produced progressively stronger retracement rallies. I was also watching the VIX as a barometer of market psychology during each respective low. Broadly speaking, it suggested a market that had delineated the impacts of the crisis, had come to terms with the situation and was searching for a bear market bottom. 

Although the eventual low was made approximately one month from this time period, I guestimated the eventual retracement rally would yield gains in excess of 100%. 

Time proved the thesis valid.